Cautious optimism for the property market

Marin le Corre
Emerging Albania seems to be a gateway to the region for investors seeking a pan-Balkans presence as it fulfills a number of key criteria: geographical diversification, good banking services and availability of attractive financing terms. Further reasons include process efficiency and low transaction costs.
Market overview
Albania is doing comparably better than neighbouring countries, although the process of diminishing transactions has hastened since the third quarter of 2008 and affects all real estate sectors. The fact that real estate transactions are constrained by a number of factors, including a large concentration of unregistered properties, delays in enforcement of legal contracts, development activities stalled by an overly layered administrative framework and by the length of resolution of the restitution issue is not helping the current downturn. The lack of information on the market, the magnitude of the registration problem, the increasing numbers of non-performing construction loans and the residential saturation further exacerbate the issues.
It doesn't sound too optimistic, but the country is still better off than others in the region. Albania is the fastest growing of all the South Eastern countries and is a EU membership candidate... and furthermore this year Albania will be one of few European countries with positive GDP!
In Albania’s growing economy, real estate has emerged as one of the most appealing investment areas for domestic as well as foreign investors. Apart from the economic growth which is spurring growth in the real estate sector, the recognition of the need to invest heavily in infrastructure and of involving private participation therein, the recent legislation regarding creation of Special Economic Zones and the growth of road concession contracts witness it.
1. Property market background
Offices
Office property is largely concentrated in Tirana – two-thirds of all space developed from the beginning of the 1990s has been in Tirana. Other cities have a very limited stock of modern and quality office real estate.
The office market has seen impressive growth in the last 2 years with several edifices built according to international standards. Tirana has now around 50,000 sqm of Class A buildings completed whilst construction companies not frightened by oversupply may deliver more than 70,000 sqm in the next 36 months with the Millennium project bringing 20,000 sqm alone.
Almost half of the modern space in Tirana is located in the Central Business Area; in Tirana centre rents range from €12 to €18 sqm/month, in the very central area from €16 to €22 and outside the centre from €10 to €14 sqm/month. In addition to rental costs there are the cost of services amounting to 1-3 €/sqm a month. Parking is generally not included and can be astronomic like in the Twin Towers at €250/month.
Due to the relatively small size of quality tenants and registered buildings, the investment possibilities are quite limited for international investors. Furthermore given the size of the city, it is difficult to believe that Tirana will ever develop as an important office investment market. Some local players are still continuing to invest in this market as they have a different opinion on the overall economic development which in turn influences demand for space. It is critical to watch closely, assuming that some of these properties will have to be sold to maintain liquidity or to refinance credits, and there should be some interesting offers in the market soon.
In such environment, office yields have been falling over the last few years, and are currently standing at around 3-6%. This has been driven by a combination of lower occupation rates and excess of Class A buildings. Yields are tracking down those in Prague, Budapest or Vienna. In the midterm we believe that the ongoing shortage of quality tenants and the number of new office buildings will continue to drive yields down.
Leases are mainly shorter than in Western Europe and yields should normally therefore reflect the potential increased risk of letting voids. For overseas occupiers currency risks are mitigated by the fact that rents are denominated in euro. Overall, rental levels have been stable. However considering the actual level, it is unlikely that positive rental growth will resume in the near term.
Retail

View over Tirana
The retail property market is one of the most interesting property sectors. Before 1990, Albania's militaristic supply distribution system had little in common with the retail trade sector in the capitalist world. The economic reforms of the early 1990s broke down the barriers that for decades had kept private entrepreneurs from the retail marketplace.
Until 2005 the retail format was unique and was dominated by small-scale shops varying from roadside shops and open air markets, and city storefronts. While many stores specialize in goods such as shoes, leather, or bags, it is still common to find stores with an unusual mix of merchandise (bicycles sold next to paper products and small appliances, for example) as the vast majority of consumers is still used in to shop in the same place every day. Tesco, Real, Hypernova, Auchan and Carrefour haven’t entered the market yet as they need first to solve logistical issues.
Nevertheless, two chains of mini markets exist with 5 to 15 outlets. The most dominant player in the commercial retail space market is Euromax (22,000 square meters) opened in he QTU shopping centre along the Tirana-Durres highway in September 2005 and sold in 2008 to a large Serbian operator. Conad, the second player, successfully opened several supermarket-size outlets in 2007/2008 and intend to expand in 2009. There are currently 11 retail centers of various sizes in Tirana but over the next months Albanian consumers are expected to gain access to a wide variety of products as several local and foreign investors are planning large European-style shopping centres with each more than 100 retail units. Promoters are not afraid of creating excess supply, even if such projects will increase retail market inventory to more than 200,000 sqm from the current 80,000 sqm of the 11 existing shopping centers.
The level of rents depends on location, as well as on lease period. In general rentals have broadly remained steady. For well-located malls they have moved from $40/sqm/month at the end of 2003 to €50 in 2008, and for the prime locations lessees were willing to pay as much as €60/sqm a month in the capital.
The retail property market offers different products with long lease periods, which are attractive to investors. In this sector local investors prevail. In the retail market, as in the office market, leases have been shortened from 5 to 2-3 years.
We can expect that with the time, as in western European cities, shoppers wish to shop in well-located malls that accommodate highly specialised retailers rather than on the high street.
Logistics and distribution
A substantial number of merchants, agents, middlemen, wholesalers and retailers are involved in the distribution of goods in Albania. Most distribution channels are in place, though with a lesser degree of sophistication than in other European markets.
The warehouse market has gone through a period of development but still large warehouses need to be developed in and around Tirana as well as other locations within the country. Rents stand at around €5-€7/sqm/month within the Tirana limits and at €4-€5 outside Tirana. Rents have been stable since 2 years. There is no vacancy rate in warehouse space in Tirana and this sector is currently viewed as being at the bottom phase of the business cycle.
The expansion of trading chains along the Tirana-Durres highway has captured developers’ interest in building more space, where projects of the built-to-suit type have prevailed. We anticipate that this sector is likely to become much more active. The impetus for this will be the growth of the domestic economy and a larger market due to demographics. Outside Tirana the growth of warehousing space will be dependent on the expansion and development of the road system. We also see important warehouse market developments in the port cities of Durres and Vlora.
Even if the connections from Albania to its neighbouring countries are still weak in places, numerous development measures are planned or currently being realized: the development of Corridor VIII as a major axis of development in the European Union, the new commercial-industrial port of Durres that doubles the existing capacity to around 20,000 tons/year, the new highway which connects the port of Durres with Kosovo, and the expansion of freight at the airport 30km from Durres will contribute to establish regional distribution centres which will create interesting transport hub opportunities outside the capital.
The warehouse market is today mostly a playground for local investors. Nevertheless we believe that investors will take advantage of the comparatively low wages in the labour market to contribute to an influx of logistics related investment.
Residential
The residential property market encountered some weakening during 2008 and price corrections will continue. Even today if you look at the average salary in Albania and the property prices, you would probably say that there couldn't be a real estate market in this country. A 100m2 apartment in Tirana costs more than hundred times the average monthly salary… yet the market exists, which only proves that official economic statistics in this part of the world are one thing and reality is something else.
Thanks to GDP growth, urbanization, demographics and money remittances from Albanians abroad Tirana witnessed a housing boom over the past 10 years. The residential property market was the most active sector in real estate. Deals involving residential property accounted for approximately 65% of all market transactions.
Even if today the residential boom is over – and it may take some years to reverse the actual supply – there are still opportunities in some segments of the sector. As noted previously, these days, acquiring a second home is not something reserved only for the wealthiest Albanians. More moderate income families are finding reasons and ways to get in on the action.
Supply
Since 2008 a small number of international developers have been expanding their businesses in Albania. They have introduced new practices and buildings of a higher quality, with better insulation and soundproofing, which were a rarity in the past. Outside Tirana, new residential developments have dominated the market in the past 12 months as it has became difficult to obtain building permits inside the city. In addition to this, there is an increasing demand for green, environment-friendly properties. Local investors usually buy suitable plots of land and construct large popular apartments with underground parking. These buildings typically are up to eight stories high.
Demand
In general demand remains weak even if first home ownership has been the incentive for most buyers with off-plan apartments (sales based on the architect’s design before construction) forming the bulk of sales. First-time real estate buyers now demand quality apartments of approximately 100 sqm at less than €600. Demand for property of this size and price, completed and fully registered has been high in the past 12 months due to a new middle class looking to access the property market with mortgage loan. The banks which are currently facing falling local interest rates are also keen to increase their mortgage loan customers in this segment.
In the second-hand market, sellers of unregistered apartments have more and more difficulty finding buyers. We foresee prices of such apartments to continue to fall as potential buyers become more aware of this problem.
High-end properties with a value of more than €1200/sqm are flourishing in a very limited market segment. The demand is mainly driven by wealthy locals and the Albanian diaspora. A larger part of them have been purchasing properties for their social status, and will probably eventually buy villas outside the city.
Price levels
Like in many other Eastern Europe countries the real estate prices in Albania are denominated in euro. New high-end residential developments in Tirana center maintain the highest asking prices, with the gold medal at €2400/sqm in a non-registered building! In the mid-market prices for new apartments range from €500-800/sqm. All projects have similar pricing no matter the size, quality and location, which is a sign that the market is still developing.
Clearly the mid-market ranging from €500-900 per square metre forms the bulk of the business. However, more expensive apartments average from €1200-1600 per square metre, and many of them have been on the market for long periods, representing a downward trend when compared to past years. In general the lack of publicly available information on past transactions is one of the reasons why asking prices for second hand properties continue to remain high.
Looking ahead we estimate that residential prices are set to continue a downturn pattern taking values back to the level they were some years ago. Supply is another key factor affecting property value. When there are too many properties on the market, there is downward pressure on prices, and this is currently the case in Albania. Sales volumes are also due to hit their low this year as consumer confidence is declining in the face of rising economical issues.
Rental
Following an already established pattern, the high-end rental market has continued to be driven by corporate expatriates and diplomats living and working in Tirana. Demand for quality accommodation has stagnated when compared to the last 2 years. One of the reasons for this decrease is the slowed influx of new expatriates and the oversupply of nicely furnished properties. Demand is mostly for quality, brand new fully furnished apartments of 100 sqm that offer the amenities of a contemporary home including facilities such as 24/7 utilities, air-conditioning and a garage. The supply of such apartments is limited and, therefore, demand is being redirected to smaller quality apartments of around 70sqm.
The rental price of high-quality apartments is decreasing from around €10/sqm per month to €7-8/sqm per month. Due to relatively more supply, the rents of quality apartments displayed a downward trend with achieved rents between €5 and €8 per sqm per month. Again the yield is identical to other Central European countries, whitch seems insufficient to attract international investors with a Buy to Let strategy. The rental market is anticipated to continue this downward trend with marginal improvements in small size quality apartments.
Tourism and Leisure

Tirana’s colourful facades
Thanks to the recently announced EU candidature paving the way for EU membership, Albania will received further funding which will contribute to the development of infrastructure a key point for tourism development. The government has already approved a partial Coast Development Bill in an attempt to counter excessive construction along the coast that is jeopardising tourism. A gloomy example of how development can go wrong can be seen along the beaches of Durres and Golem. Despite these problems, Albania is making progress and we are positive on the development of specific seaside resorts. One international hotel chain is already established in Tirana and others are looking to come. Foreign investments in Albania are fully protected by law. They cannot be nationalised, expropriated or subject to any other measures. Several taxes incentives in the tourism sector are available for investors. A first small marina in Vlora is now open and a growing number of developers are working on new seaside resorts. We believe that this is just a start, as there is 350 km of virgin coast line.
Land
Unlike Montenegro, where too much capital was chasing too few land assets, Albania has reasonable pricing and transactions are completed at levels that are regarded as low compared to neighbouring countries. This investment area not only is growing but also is becoming much more diverse, with a much wider range of property types being purchased.
The price of freehold land has increased significantly in recent years. Rural land prices in certain area rose by 30% in 2007-2008 and residential land prices have increased a staggering five-fold over the past years. There is a demand from developers for large parcels of land for residential projects just outside cities, as it is extremely difficult to get buildings permits within city limits. There is also significant interest in land parcels suitable for industrial development near the national airport and commercial plots along the Durres highway outside Tirana.
It is hardly surprising that plots of coastal land are seen as a viable alternative to more traditional investments – since summer 2007 there is more interest in land as an investment vehicle. Investors from the Middle East were early comers, though they are now being surpassed by European investors. Beachfront plots are priced at €30-150/sqm with, in the south, some plots already reaching more than €200/sqm. Investing in land has the advantage that there is currently no VAT and no purchase tax on investments. In addition, there is no penalty or tax to pay if the land remains undeveloped. There are solid benefits to buying land for sale. Land is a tangible asset - it's real and its supply is limited. The demand for coastal land for sale, particularly in the south, is soaring because of the chronic shortage.
Profits can be made from buying land, which then needs planning permission to be obtained separately. Plot sizes vary from 4 to 50 hectares. We forecast prices on the coast to rise significantly in the next few years as most local and foreign investors are attracted to the coastline. From Kavajes to Vlora, thanks to a better infrastructure, we will see more and more future developments.
Industrial zones
The government of Albania supports industrial zones, pursuing a strong pro-business and pro-investment policy that aims to boost region and international trade. The government is primarily looking to attract major foreign investment in cities like Durres, Elbasan and Shkodra. Durres Industrial Park, the country's largest industrial park, is being realised near to Durres on 850 hectares of land, and will include various activities that will create jobs. Plots are offered at 1 euro for 35 years under a PPP contract with the state. The Durres Industrial Park will border the Energy Park. Two other industrial parks have been also approved, one in Elbasan (250 hectares) and the other in Shkodra (130 hectares). Another industrial zone model is being developed by local businesses in the city of Vlora. There are a number of much smaller greenfield and brownfield sites that are within the remit of local administrations to identify and develop. Most recently a German developer proposed to build a business park of over 21 ha in Tirana, showing that numerous opportunities to develop new industrial zones exist.
While the government is essentially pursuing a private industrial park model, there will be a regulatory role for the Ministry of Economy which will engage in defining the incentives to attract developers and investors including linking certain brownfield sites with the government’s €1 initiative, as well as licensing and monitoring industrial zone/park developers and managers.
2. Development of the real estate market
A number of factors have contributed towards the development of the Albanian real estate market.
Economic growth
In almost every traveller’s guide Albania is described as the least developed country in Europe. This may be true but this is only a part of the story. The expansion of GDP was accompanied by a controlled inflation rate. Consumer demand is expected to increase and will result in renewed interest from foreign investors. Low wages are also anticipated and act as an incentive to foreign investors. The improving GDP and inflation situation have significantly reduced unemployment in past years. Albania's GDP has constantly been higher than 5% for several years. These are positive factors for the development of the real estate market.
Changes in the financial environment
Significantly, the entry of foreign banking capital and expertise has created a vibrant and competitive retail banking sector. In the last years, large European banks like Crédit Agricole, Société Générale and Banca Intesa San Paolo took control of local banks. These newcomers increased the sources for financing, funding and investment, even if they are currently not lending. The banking environment comprised 17 commercial banks at the end of 2008, all of them offering mortgage loans. The combined assets of commercial banks in Albania rose year-on-year and the mortgage market represents less than 10% of this total, which is extremely low and will offer new opportunities.
Real estate lending is primarily hindered by registration and enforcement problems. However, (the lack of?) experience in developing mortgage finance systems in transition and emerging markets indicates that banks remain very risk averse. We believe that this trend will reverse after the components of the legal and administrative infrastructure start to fall into place. Today banks in Albania have generally adopted a collateralised approach to lending, and focus their marketing on the upper income groups and favoured corporate customers.
Although the banks’ very conservative approach to mortgage lending greatly limits its effectiveness, most of the problems are external to the banks. Foreign banks bring a high level of international expertise and also longer-term funds from the mother banks. The competition in retail lending improved the appeal of the sector. However, the fundamental legal and registration problems must be solved before real estate lending can truly move forward.
Changes in Albanians’ mentality
Albanians have gradually started to perceive real estate as not only a physical asset (a place of residence or somewhere to run a business from), but also as an investment asset. The reluctance to invest in real estate stemmed from the disregard of property rights and mortgage title. The emerging of a market economy began to draw attention towards investment categories other than the traditional ones, including real estate; the introduction of regulations secured ‘respect’ for property rights. As a result the real estate market has now become an acceptable investment area. The flow of capital into the real estate market occurred across all sectors, but particularly into the retail and the residential markets.
Flow of foreign capital
The World Bank committed some 1 billion dollars for 60 projects in Albania since 1991, when the country joined the global lender. And the Delegation of the European Commission in Albania currently implanted a financial allocation IPA (Instrument for Pre-accession Assistance) of more than 11 billion euros over the period of 2007-2013. We believe the flow of foreign investments made in Albania will continue thanks in part to NATO membership and the EU candidate status.
Remittances also played a large role in the flow of capital. The Bank of Albania estimates that the total official workers’ remittances from abroad have reached around 1028 million dollars or 10 percent of GDP in 2008 (unofficially perhaps 2-3 time more). This is more than revenues from export of goods, which makes “work force” Albania's main export. Furthermore, remittances are estimated to be three times higher than foreign direct investments inflow and its value far exceeds the official aid from abroad. Ardian Fullani, governor of the Bank of Albania, noted that remittances represent the most direct and immediate benefit to emigrants’ families and to the economy and that they are mostly used for imported consumer goods, services, and for the purchase or construction of properties. Even if remittances have decreased in the fourth quarter of 2008 they will continue to be a major source of support for the residential market.
Market underpinnings
Despite being relatively immature, the real estate market in Albania has already some foundations. They comprise of the following elements:
- Establishment of a legislative base supporting the functioning of the real estate market. For example free trade in property, the rules for restitution of land, as well as the amended rules for disposition and apportionment;
- A mortgage banking system has been created and is working;
- Higher learning institutions like USAID have launched courses and research into the real estate market and educate professionals to service the market.
There are between 7-10 legitimate brokerage companies in Tirana, each company with up to 15 employees. Today only approximately 30 percent of all real estate transactions are broker assisted, except in the high end of the market where brokers are mandated systematically. We estimate that the number of real estate practitioners range from 250 to 500 persons practicing full or part time; these figures include not only the legitimate, registered businesses but also the “black brokers”. Nationwide, there are probably 10 to 20 “higher quality” practitioners. Thus, it would appear that there are many illegitimate brokers throughout the country. Legitimate brokers complain that they are tainted by the activities of “black brokers” and that the entire profession is therefore not viewed in a very professional manner. Also because of these illegitimate brokers, commissions are low in the range of 1 to 3 percent and are paid by the seller and the buyer. The fee for rental commission is one month’s rent on an annual lease. We believe that the market will become more and more professional making non registered brokers working for locals only.
Outlook
Real Estate Development
Out of the 400 existing construction companies, there are 6 to 7 larger companies that have development capacity. Most of these are organised as civil engineering and construction companies that also build for their own account and ultimately re-sell the property, none are purely development companies. This development community was doing well until 2008 – according to the official statistics the number of permits issued during the first half of 2008 was 140% higher than in 2007. However more recently an association of construction companies in Tirana asked for “immediate government help” claiming that the global financial crisis could send them into bankruptcy. The construction industry accounted for 15 per cent of GDP in 2007. Despite the temporary shortages in liquidity, the construction industry will remain one of the most important sources of economic growth in the long term.
Municipalities, districts and the state require a multitude of licenses and permits to develop real estate, all of which entail fees of varying amounts. Developers estimate that this adds 15% to the cost of real estate development – enough to eliminate profits for most developers and to discourage all but the most highly motivated and deeply capitalized firms from undertaking development projects. What is helping the developers is that construction costs are extremely stable and this helps increase their margin.
Illegal construction
The collapse of the communist regime in the 1990s led to the massive privatisation of cooperative and state held farm assets. Distribution of land did not take into consideration former ownership of private property that had been nationalised earlier. Ultimately, this ambiguity has created social, political and economic conflicts due to the lack of clear title to the properties. Disputes over ownership and other legal rights to property arise from restitution claims. Nevertheless efforts have been made to assist the government in conducting the registration of immovable property and implementing the Law on the Recognition, Restitution and Compensation of Property.
In the past, lack of enforcement to inhibit illegal construction of buildings has been widespread. But this is also changing; municipal authorities are now under scrutiny for issuing illegal construction permits that clearly violate zoning laws. In 2008, the authorities discharged and detained several civil servants, mayors and notaries involved in abusive attribution of building permissions or misconduct in land distribution. Most recently the construction police demolished many informal buildings in the village of Jale, a village considered by many as one the most beautiful on Albania’s Riviera and part of the World Bank project on Integrated Coastal Zones Management.
In 2006, Albania adopted a law for the legalisation of illegal construction of the estimated 200.000 unauthorised buildings across the country. However, demolitions in the coastal areas during 2007 increased substantially with 180 cases (112 illegal constructions in Velipoja, 34 in Durres, 47 in Vlora district and 42 in Saranda district) against 110 demolitions of illegal buildings during 2006 and 90 in 2005.
Where are the investment opportunities?
Even if Albania was not involved in dealing with toxic assets, which were the trigger for the global financial crisis, it is now affected by it. That means that many projects, often lofty plans, have been put on hold and will possibly be reconsidered soon as growth will be clearly here higher here then elsewhere in Europe.
Albania today is like Croatia 10 years ago – the strong growth in property development and the attractive prices are an incentive for foreign investment. If Albania does indeed follow Croatia's example in terms of a sustained property boom, investors who are currently getting their hands on remarkable deals will be set to make significant returns in the years to come. Investors are aware of the huge growth in land value in Croatia and Montenegro over the past decade. Land is now an attractive investment in Albania and one that is no longer solely the domain of property developers. Today seaside lands in virgin areas with planned infrastructure are in high demand, as well commercial plots along the Tirana-Durres highway. For some time, more Europeans and Middle East investors are chasing deals for land plots. But at this stage most of the plots available with clear title of property are of a certain size and, for the most part, better fit institutional investment capacity.
Various real estate sectors are currently witnessing a huge growth in demand. The hunt is on for limited opportunities. Several potential investment opportunities in properties that demand active management will also be interesting. In addition, the market’s awareness of these investments is still relatively limited, which promises more opportunity for achieving surplus returns. The recognised need for large investments in infrastructure with a growing awareness for involving private participation itself creates a good opportunity for serious players in this field. Other interesting segments include those in the Tirana suburbs that are attractive in terms of communications and services. Also of interest are retail properties and seaside lands for tourist development. The tourism housing market has a good growth perspective. New customer segments are also emerging: the average age for ownership of new homes is dropping drastically. Younger customers and nuclear families are creating fundamentally different customer segments.
There are other factors that make buying attractive in Albania. Capital gains taxes have been steadily low; the rate presently stands at 10 per cent. Furthermore there is no annual state property tax or VAT or transfer or inheritance taxes.
Conclusion
In the past few years, Albania has made clear progress in a number of areas necessary to allow the smooth running of real estate finance and real estate transactions. The lending environment is greatly improved. Although limited by numerous factors discussed above, mortgage lending even in the actual context is underway, as well as “consumer” lending for housing purposes. Overall, there is a growing awareness among the government of the importance of the real estate sector and the need to push reforms to solidify and improve its legal and administrative framework.
Foreign investors have just started to chase the emerging Albanian real estate market in fear of missing out on the last European newcomer. Opening the country to international investors is desirable for increasing transparency and building up expertise. Foreign capital is also important as additional source of finance.
An encouraging factor in favour of rising standards in the Albanian markets over the next years is the anticipation of continuing GDP and consumer expenditure growth compared with the EU recession. The economic knock-on effect will benefit real estate growth, investment opportunities and development prospects. The growth of the economy, the price stability with a low inflation rate of 2.5%, the favourable tax system, the increase in urbanization, the demographics and the diaspora are determinant factors that are likely to deliver a different profile of performance to that in Western markets. NATO membership, bright prospects for EU membership, a better political climate, the developing economy and moving real estate prices – Albania has it all. Enthusiasm from local investors has been substantial and interest from international investors is just emerging. The real estate market in Albania currently offers specific opportunities and looks set to do so for the foreseeable future.

© SEEBusinessguides 2009/2010


